WHAT'S NEEDED IN PM JOHNSON'S "ROAD MAP", 10 May 2020

Written Sunday 10 May 2020, before PM Johnson's presentation to the UK.

In the previous post, we looked at how the UK has got to where it is with COVID-19 and the tragic count of deaths.  Yet the importance of easing lockdown rapidly but safely.

Now let's look to the future.  What needs to be in PM Johnson's "roadmap"?

WHAT'S IMPORTANT TO REALISE?

What's important going forward?: 
  1. Vaccines won't be available to the general public for months, perhaps never. This SARS 2 coronavirus is different from flu, and no vaccine is guaranteed either effective or safe.  Any vaccine needs to be both
  2. Medicines and devices are bieng evaluated. Promising progress with medicines already proved effective against other viruses, and which are known to be adequately safe.  But still probably months away against COVID-19
  3. Testing for the virus using swabbing is unreliable, especially for self-swabbing. "False negatives" mean that those with symptoms of COVID19 who would have self-isolated can be released in to the community. Dangerous. We need better tests for presence of the live virus, again probably months away. 
Yet we need to ease lockdown now.

HOW CAN LOCKDOWN BE EASED?

Lockdown is a blunt instrument to reduce transmission as measured by Ro below 1. Because of the severe 'side-effects' it is arguably considered 'of last resort'.

To ease lockdown we need a package of measures that in combination do the same, to reduce transmission Ro to below 1.

Such measures can include: 
  1. Improved hygiene, including (a) washing of hands and surfaces with soap (which destroys the fatty virus coating) or disinfectant (b) regarding the coats of dogs, cats and other animals as a 'surface' 
  2. Staying at home as far as possible.  
  3. Those most vulnerable need to 'shield' themselves at home, with absolute minimum contact with people and animals.  They need to be kept fed.
  4. Social distancing when out and about, avoiding crowds. Especially in workplaces, schools and public transport.  Not at all easy! 
  5. Use of Simple Source Control masks, for which we need effective designs we can make at home. "My masks stops me infecting you, yours stops you infecting me".  This is the number one measure now in Thailand
  6. Self-isolation of anyone who has symptoms, including other members of their household.  New research is expanding the list of symptoms.
  7. Test/trace/isolate, but only when major issues have been overcome on test reliability, app privacy and other concerns (which I shall cover separately)
JOHNSON'S ROAD MAP

PM Johnson is presenting his "road map" this evening 7pm BST. Whilst little will change immediately, how much of this will he announce?

I'm expecting an emphasis on test/trace/isolate. But until my concerns about reliability and other matters are resolved, I am worried. Indeed, wondering if self-swabbing should be stopped until more reliable tests are developed. That goes against media and public pressure to expand testing, but I am not convinced expansion dependent on self-swabbing is sensible. 

Reaction to his presentation follows in the next article. "ASSESSMENT OF PM JOHNSON'S PRESENTATION 10 May 2020"

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