THE MPs’ SCIENCE COMMITTEE AND THE PRESS CONFERENCE FOR ENGLAND, TUESDAY 19 MAY

This “presser” was led by George Eustice MP, the Environment Secretary.  He was supported by Dame Angela Maclean, Deputy Chief Medical Advisor.  She is also Chief Scientific Adviser to the Ministry of Defence, and a professor of mathematical biology.

The entire presser can be found on YouTube

The graphics can be found here.  This page also lists links to the graphics shown at other pressers.

The presser format followed earlier ones where I have been mainly critical.

NEWS

COVID cases continue to fall, but more slowly Dame Angela said was “a cause of debate”.  In other words, a cause for concern.  That ties into an expected rise in the R value, as discussed here.

Otherwise the main news was the issue with a lack of people helping to pick the harvest.  Many of these in recent years have been from Eastern Europe, yet only about a third of the usual numbers are in the UK or expected.  Some 50,00-60,000 people are needed in total.   So a new “Pick for Britain” campaign is being established.  There’s a new website, which will hopefully work later to explain what is involved

OTHER POINTS

Many of the questions overlapped with the report today from the Science and Technology Committee of MPs. 

This is highly critical report with 10 recommendations which I have grouped as follows:

Test, trace and isolate

• Answers about the UK's approach to testing are needed
• Testing capacity must increase
• Contact-tracing capacity must be urgently built up
• Isolation and quarantine must be part of the government's "test, track and trace" strategy

The big admission by Dame Angela was that testing was prioritised to NHS on 12 March, so virus testing wasn't available to care homes and the general public  "Capacity was not increased early enough or boldly enough. Capacity drove strategy, rather than strategy driving capacity."  Testing capacity has been 'inadequate'.

If testing was as simple as a litmus paper test, or had there been months to develop this more complex test, I would support these statements.  The statement are sound in theory.  But not necessarily in practise.  Let me explain..

Dane Angela said in the press conference that we “need a rapid and reliable testing system” including resolving issues with slow turnaround of tests.  Absolutely right.

I'm not sure why other countries' testing was so much better than the UK's, such as Germany's. I've heard various thoughts, but nothing definitive.

Actually I'm concerned that the expansion of testing has been too fast.  "Had it" antibody tests have only just been approved thsi week as providing reliable results. There are also reliability issues with "Got it" virus tests that have recently been used.

• Ensuring the virus variants, of which there are around 13, are all picked up, without picking up other coronaviruses.  I'm not sure how confident the test manufacturers are about the technology nor the process of handling test material.
• Virus testing is dependent on swabbing.  This is difficult enough by a professional, and I've heard is only 70% reliable.  Self-swabbing must be even worse.  Any 'false negatives' ruling out the virus despite its presence and symptoms would mean releasing infectious people into the community.  This would be dangerous and counter-productive. 
• So overall, virus testing might actually be worse than none.  The scientists may have been right to be cautious, but been overidden by political pressure. Though that is only a suspicion.

There are also issues with all other stages of the test/trace/isolate process.  For example, today a report on issues with the app being trialed in the Isle of Wight have confirmed that there are serious concerns.

As a result, however important test/trace/isolate might be in theory, in practice in the short term it is best to have a Lockdown Exit plan that places no reliance on testing.  Once the issues have been overcome, it will then be a bonus.


Other Scientific Matters

• Capacity for making and deploying vaccines must increase.  Announcements on funding research and manufacture have been made in the last couple of days which are as good as one might hope.
• Strategies for managing asymptomatic people must be clearer.  This is an interesting area, and what makes this coronavirus so much more infectious and difficult to manage than many other viruses.  One simple measure that would help is for everyone to use a face covering as they step outside thier house.  Yet this isn't what is being recommended.
• Deaths of BAME patients must be better recorded  This is important, but not as fundamental as other recommendations that affect everyone

Mode of Operation

• The government should continue to draw on extensive scientific advice.  Apparently they are, but it is not clear to what extent scientific advice is being overridden, such as easing lockdown before PPE supplies are assured, or rolling out unreliable tssts.  .
• England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland must continue to work closely together.  This is happening at the scientific level.  The UK government have been foolish in how poorly they have liaised with the devolved administrations, and as a result have not achieved consensus.
• Greater transparency is needed about scientific advice.  This includes publishing the minutes of SAGE meetings.  Personally I would prefer these to be conducted behind closed doors, as at present, so they don't have to worry about defending their positions on a day to day basis, and get on with the job.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PRESSER

Difficult to make the assessment any different from other recent pressers.  That's +0.5 on a scale from -2 to +2.  Or a B+

Still not good enough!