LOCKDOWN EASING - WHY IS CAUTION SO IMPORTANT?

I want lockdown to be eased as rapidly as possible.  I did at the start of it and I still do.  But.  And it's a big but.

Easing has to be done safely.  Otherwise if a second wave happens we will inevitably need a second lockdown to suppress it.  Just like the first time.  That would create even more economic damage.  Even more cost to the Treasury.  Even more disruption  to our lives.  And tens of thousands more deaths. Untold damage.

Is that a risk worth taking?

Indeed no.  Caution is easing lockdown is vitally important.  As PM Johnson indeed said in his recorded address to the nation on 10 May.

Then R in the UK was estimated at 0.4-0.7.  Last we heard (15 May, nearly 2 weeks ago) it had already risen to 0.7-1.0.  It's probably now already over 1.0.  That would mean exponential growth again.  R needs to be held well below 0.5 ideally to bring new cases to a halt within a reasonable timescale.  As this graph shows:.


An R over 1.0 would mean an exponential growth in cases, and a second lockdown inevitable to bring it back under control.  So:
  1. The government need to be very careful in their formal review of whether the new measures from next Monday 1 June can go ahead.  That has to be done by tomorrow Thursday 28 May.
  2. The Treasury need to stop putting undue pressure on the PM to ease lockdown too quickly.
  3. Newspapers and other media need to stop telling the public that easing can be faster than the government instructs.  Indeed better to be warning the public to take maximum precautions.
  4. The same applies to other commentators
No more like this, please, as happened on Thrisday 7 May before the PM's first announcement of easing.  The public were led to expect a more fundamental easing, and that set the wrong foundations. 



I usually say "Onwards and upwards".  But for R it's "Onwards and downwards".  That's the only way, isn't it?

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