CUMMINGS AFTER THE DURHAM POLICE STATEMENT 28 May 2020

The Cummings issue has dominated the last few days, and looks like it will rumble on.

His press conference in the garden of Number 10 was remarkable.  In trying to address the reports of additional issues, he set out a number of additional matters.  Rather than put such matters to bed, he opened a can of worms.

These matters served to show he is a dangerous man who does not observe the laws and regulations of this country.  Dangerous to his family, his colleagues and the general public.  And oblivious to the traditions and anger of the British public.

Indeed  Durham Constabulary have today 28 May issued a carefully worded statement.  They would have been entitled under the regulation to stop Cummings and request he return to Durham.  That means a breach of the regulations which would have entitled the police to issue a fine, were it not for the light touch approach.  What Cummings did sets an awful example.  Senior police are saying it will be virtually impossible for police to uphold the law on COVID restrictions.

We need to expect from anyone in or advising government that:

• They are competent and do not act in a dangerous manner
• They keep to the letter of the law
• They set a good example

Cummings has failed on all three tests. .On that basis alone he needs to go.  But furthermore:

• It's not as if his advice has produced a great response to COVID-19.  In fact it looks like the opposite given the UK death toll, and we would have been better not to have had his influence.  His influence is certainly not welcome in the future.  
• His flouting of the lockdown rules is undermining the government's messages going forward.  Added to police concerns, the government has now effectively lost control of the public adherence to future anti-COVID measures

PM Johnson has just announced (Thursday 28 May) he will still not be sacking Cummings.  This makes Johnson look weak.  Indeed, reports are that Johnson is so heavily reliant on Cummings the PM couldn't do the job without him.

Furthermore Johnson and the other cabinet members who have been backing Cummings are displaying a lack of judgement by ignoring the seriousness of the analysis above.  Indeed those who have said Cummings has not committed an offence, are now looking a laughing stock. That includes the Director General, whose resignation would now be expected.

Cummings and Johnson need to go, and an Interim PM immediately appointed.  He or she can select their own cabinet.

This is a matter of competence to deal with the COVID-19 crisis.  Not political.

Personally I am middle of the road, indeed representative of the vast majority of UK voters.  I would be happy of the Interim PM were to appoint people from other parties into the Cabinet, to form a Government of National Unity.

But we can't ignore the more political dimensions.




BROADER POLITICAL DIMENSIONS

As of Wednesday evening 27 May, at least 44 Conservative MPs have publicly asked for Cummings to resign or be sacked, including several former ministers.  One current minister has actually resigned.   There's a further 17 MPs who have seriously criticised Cummings, but think he should stay, including a former Chancellor and former Health Minister.  Astonishing.

But why not more?  The background issue is that Cummings and Johnson represent the Brexit faction of the Conservative party.  It's looking increasingly likely that the transition period to exit the EU, due to end on 31 December this year, needs to be extended.   Many Brexiteers don't want that to happen.  So far Johnson and his Brexit ministers have refused to countenance such an extention. Hence the need for Brexiters to support them.

Then of course there is loyalty.  To the party if not to Johnson.  Though many MPs are yet to go public on their views.  Now the Durham police have intervened, this may flush out more discontent.

So let's take a step back.  PM Johnson currently has a simple majority of 80 seats.  This means in theory only some 40 Conservative rebels switching to support opposition parties could bring down the government in a Vote of No Confidence.  There's more than 40 in the figures above.  Turning that into the reality of No Confidence is a different matter, but it isn't a comfortable position for the Conservative party, let alone Johnson.

As a party they would be wise to replace Johnson with an Interim leader and PM, elected by an emergency process.  It's not sensible to hold a General Election in the middle of a crisis, so the ruling party must be given the chance to form a government first.  The candidates could be anyone not actively supporting Cummings, be they Leavers (of which there are several) and Remainers.  Resolving the COVID crisis is the more important objective.

Come on Conservatives.  Take action for the good of the country.  And given the shifts in opinion polls, frankly themselves!