WHAT DO WE NEED FROM THESE COVID19 PRESS CONFERENCES?

COVID19 is a matter of life and death. Literally.  It’s also a matter of livelihood and disrupted lives. It’s affecting everyone in a way unimaginable a few short weeks ago.

We look to the Government to lead us through and out of this mess.  We need clear leadership going forward, whatever their hue of politics, and whatever we think of the way we have got to where we are.

We’re not getting that leadership

TONIGHT’S ‘PRESSER’, TUESDAY 12 MAY 2020

Apart from a few new graphics, which were more cluttered than anything I would ever present, the overall standard of the Press Conference was utterly inadequate.  I’m actually feeling quite angry, given what’s at stake.

PM Johnson himself said on Sunday and Monday that we’re moving into a dangerous phase where the approach will be more subtle.  All the more reason to be crystal clear.  He and Ministers have been saying to “use common sense”, but this virus is outside our experience, and more guidance is needed.

THE MUDDLE OF WHAT WE SAW

We saw 5 Alert Levels and then the first three steps.  Nothing to tie these steps into the levels.  What about steps 4 onwards?  Or are these three steps all we are to expect, going from Level 4 to 3 to 2 to 1?  Utterly unclear.

Then we had a set of 6 things we should be doing, which they hadn’t bothered to update for the use of face masks, which nonetheless were mentioned verbally.

These are schoolboy errors.  It was like watching a Year12 school project going horribly wrong.

Yet there’s nothing to suggest the basic strategy isn’t sensible.  It’s all about communication.

It’s easy to criticise, and there’s lots more I could mention.  But what can I positively suggest?  What should be happening?

WHAT WE NEED AT THESE PRESSERS

The press conferences are an opportunity to educate, using material that is also readily available on the NHS and government websites. To treat the public as adults, but telling them what they wouldn't have known pre-COVID.  Probably repeatedly, in combination with other media, to make sure everyone sees it at least once.

The Slogan

I am happier than most people about the new slogan, provided it is seen differently from the original:

• “Stay Alert” is a state of mind, as a more positive form of “Don’t Relax”.  It also ties into Alert Levels.  As we move down the levels, we certainly can’t relax, but need to Stay Alert. 
• “Control the virus” makes sense as the set of measures we need to follow:
• General measures, like hand washing, that will apply at every Alert Level, potentially for ever
• Measures specific to each Alert Level, or each individual step within each level
• Yet the measures were presented under “Stay alert”.  That doesn’t make sense
• “Save lives” is unchanged.  But in addition, the experience of being seriously ill with COVID19 is awful, and survivors are being left with hideous medical conditions.  The risk is therefore far higher than death alone, and none of this has yet been explained.

The Risks

Why should people avoid catching COVID19?

• The risk of death, even though that is small.  It’s not the only thing
• The risk of seriously unpleasant illness, with or without death
• The serious physical and mental health problems that can result from serious illness
• The consequences of giving the virus to friends and family
• The need to self-isolate themselves and the whole household.  This is serious inconvenience, if not worse.
• The likelihood that we’ll need to go back to a full lockdown of measures aren't followed.

These risks have not been clearly enough explained.  People have effectively been encouraged to only think of the risk of death, and that does not feel that much different from crossing a busy road.  The risks in total are far worse.

What R really means

R is critical to all the future pressers, and indeed critical to defeating this virus.

We need a mix of reproduction graphics and graphs to show:

• What happens when the virus is uncontrolled, with R around 3
• What happens when the R is just above 1.  Values of 1.1 and 1.2 are remarkably exponential
• How little transmission is necessary to keep R below 1.
• The risk and consequences of a second wave 

Again this hasn’t been adequately communicated.

Core Measures to keep R below 1 and replace lockdown

This needs to start with education of how the virus transmits, on breath and on surfaces and whatever else.  That needs to include diagrams of the ‘cloud' of viruses created by people breathing, talking, laughing, running.

• General measures applying to all Alert Levels, for example
• Hygiene measures for cleaning hands and surfaces, additional to the measures we all learn as kids that are primarily anti-bacterial
• Correct use of Simple Source Control masks, and the concept of why they can be helpful (These weren't even on the third slide for Measures, and only added later in the week)
• Social distancing when meeting and passing other people
• Specific measures for each alert level or step, for example:
• Application to each type of business, school and college

The Lockdown Exit Strategy

Pulling that and more together into a clear strategy and ‘road map’.  Far better than presented so far.
This clearly needs more attention. I would suggest a specific Task Force to do these things:

• Investigate and test every idea to keep R low
• Co-ordinate all other future initiatives, such as vaccines, medicines and devices for use by the general public
• Pull those all together into a complete Strategy and roadmap, including a clearer indication of:
• Criteria to move between levels and steps, just like the 5 tests before the initial easing
• Criteria that would mean reverting to stricter lockdown measures, mentioned but could be clearer
• Estimate of timescales, beyond the three steps.  What light is there at the end of the tunnel, and how long is it?

On timescales, the scientists are talking increasingly about months rather than weeks.  However the politicians can’t bring themselves to be honest with the public on timescales beyond the early summer.  Yet businesses and other organisations need to plan ahead. 

Public expectations also need to be managed.  Not least to avoid ‘lockdown fatigue’ because people don’t properly understand why measures are essential, and face up to the long-term nature of this virus.

IN CONCLUSION

There’s lots more I could add, such as better statistics on testing.  But that’s enough to be getting on with.

Communications need to go up not just one notch, one gear, but several!