STOCKTAKE OF THE COVID-19 SITUATION 28 MAY

Today is the day that the UK government is scheduled to announce whether the lockdown easing hoped for next Monday 1 June can go ahead, or whether changes need to be delayed.  Indeed whether existing adjustments need to be reversed back to simply "Stay at Home".  Changes would include:

My concern is that R has risen over the limit of 1.0, and changes should not go ahead.  There's little I can do to influence that decision now.  The meetings are probably already taking place.  We can only look beyond that decision.
  • Where are we in the battle against COVID-19?  The worst death toll in Europe, and infection cases still high.
  • Who should be leading us forward? 
  • What am I consequentially going to do about tbis blog?  
But before I answer those questions, let me tell you a story.  Back when I was 23, it was Christmas Eve.  I was sent to audit a 'simple' stocktake of kiddies tricycles at a warehouse in Oxford.  "Only take about an hour" the audit manager said. "Only a few tens of boxes".  I arrived to find a mountain of boxes floor to ceiling in a corner at least 30 by 30 by 10 high.  That's some 9,000 boxes or more.  I was told they had been imported too late to sell for Christmas.  But was it a wall of boxes hiding an empty space?  Or empty boxes?  I liaised with my manager, and the forklift had to pull out dozens of boxes to check.  All pukka.  But that hour job had taken most of the day.

That's what I am finding with this blog.   Taking far longer than I would like, due mainly to the utter nonsense in the way this pandemic is being handled here in the UK.  There is little that is going right.  The only exception is the financial support that has been launched in remarkably quick time.  Yet it's costing too much, so Chancellor Rishi Sunak is now trying to rush its withdrawal.  Potentially throwing away everything that has been achieved.  As is the risk with rushing to ease lockdown.  If that results in a second wave, it will cost far more in deaths, lifestyle and finances.  The Treasury will then be in even bigger trouble.  Why take the risk?  Carefully does it.


THE PURPOSE OF THIS BLOG

The detailed objectives of this blog are given here.  To help get back to some form of normality as rapidly as is safe, and defeat the virus.  To do so, better understand the science.

The blog started on the weekend that PM Johnson was to ease the lockdown restrictions a little.  The first article was 10 May.  Only two and a half weeks ago.

As an Oxbridge scientist, I am interested in the disease and all its consequences.  The idea was to research interesting aspects, publish them and add my own take on each topic.  Which was what I had been doing in another blog that had only been available to the host's members.  Other people wanted to see it..

The old blog covered several topic areas, and the idea was to carry on with them:
  • Easing and Exiting Lockdown
  • Financial Support
  • Avoiding Catching COVID-19
  • Coping With COVID-19 - At Home And In Hospital
  • IT Security

But to get back to normality requires far more than these.  This new blog and accompanying Twitter feed is becoming more of an analysis of failures, and campaigning to do better.  That's a much bigger job to research, write up and publicise.  It should not be necessary.   Key issues are:
  • Government communication of rules and measures that is well below par
  • Major concerns with mass test, trace and isolate
  • Lack of advice to people to avoid going into hospital
  • Need for change at the top of the government
  • And now today, major concerns about how R, the transmission rate of the virus  is calculated ("Reproduction number").  And whether it is now over the sensible limit of 1.0
I had been writing up key points from each day's press conferences since 10 May.  But the Cummings affair has made these virtually irrelevant, and I haven't had the time in this last week.

But I will carry on with this blog as best I can, and hopefully get back to the more positive aspects of getting back to normality.


THE POLITICAL ANGLES

The Cummings issue has dominated the last few days, and looks like it will rumble on.

His press conference in the garden of Number 10 was remarkable.  In trying to address the reports of additional issues, he set out a number of additional matters.  These purely served to show he is a dangerous man who does not observe the laws and regulations of this country.  Dangerous to his family, his colleagues and the general public.  And oblivious to the traditions and anger of the British public.

Indeed  Durham Constabulary have today 28 May issued a carefully worded statement.  They would have been entitled under the regulation to stop Cummings and request he return to Durham.  That means a breach of the regulations which would have entitled the police to issue a fine, were it not for the light touch approach.  That sets an awful example, which now means it will be virtually impossible for police to uphold the law, according to reports from police.

We need to expect from anyone in or advising government that:
  • They are competent and do not act in a dangerous manner
  • They keep to the letter of the law
  • They set a good example
Cummings has failed on all three tests.On that basis alone he needs to go.  But furthermore:
  • It's not as if his advice has produced a great response to COVID-19.  In fact it looks like the opposite given the UK death toll, and we would have been better not to have had his influence.  His influence is certainly not welcome in the future.  
  • His flouting of the lockdown rules is undermining the government's messages going forward.  Added to police concerns, the government has now effectively lost control of the public adherence to future anti-COVID measures

PM Johnson has just announced (Thursday 28 May) he will still not be sacking Cummings.  This makes Johnson look weak.  Indeed, reports are that Johnson is so heavily reliant on Cummings the PM couldn't do the job without him.

Furthermore Johnson and the other cabinet members who have been backing Cummings are displaying a lack of judgement by ignoring the seriousness of the analysis above.  Indeed those who have said Cummings has not committed an offence, are now looking a laughing stock. That includes the Director General, whose resignation would now be expected.

Cummings and Johnson need to go, and an Interim PM immediately appointed.  He or she can select their own cabinet.

This is a matter of competence to deal with the COVID-19 crisis.  Not political.

Personally I am middle of the road, indeed representative of the vast majority of UK voters.  I would be happy of the Interim PM were to appoint people from other parties into the Cabinet, to form a Government of National Unity.


But we can't ignore the more political dimensions.

As of Wednesday evening 27 May, at least 44 Conservative MPs have publicly asked for Cummings to resign or be sacked, including several former ministers.  One current minister has actually resigned.   There's a further 17 MPs who have seriously criticised Cummings, but think he should stay, including a former Chancellor and former Health Minister.  Astonishing.

But why not more?  The background issue is that Cummings and Johnson represent the Brexit faction of the Conservative party.  It's looking increasingly likely that the transition period to exit the EU, due to end on 31 December this year, needs to be extended.   Many Brexiteers don't want that to happen.  So far Johnson and his Brexit ministers have refused to countenance such an extention. Hence the need for Brexiters to support them.

Then of course there is loyalty.  To the party if not to Johnson.  Though many MPs are yet to go public on their views.  Now the Durham police have intervened, this may fkush out more discontent.

So let's take a step back.  PM Johnson currently has a simple majority of 80 seats.  This means in theory only some 40 Conservative rebels switching to support opposition parties could bring down the government in a Vote of No Confidence.  There's more than 40 in the figures above.  Turning that into the reality of No Confidence is a different matter, but it isn't a comfortable position for the Conservative party, let alone Johnson.

As a party they would be wise to replace Johnson with an Interim leader and PM, elected by an emergency process.  It's not sensible to hold a General Election in the middle of a crisis, so the ruling party must be given the chance to form a government first.  The candidates could be anyone not actively supporting Cummings, be they Leavers (of which there are several) and Remainers.  Resolving the COVID crisis is the more important objective.

Come on Conservatives.  Take action for the good of the country!


THE SCIENTISTS

SAGE, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, is currently chaired by the two people, the CSA and CMA.

The Scientists

Sir Patrick Vallance is the Chief Scientific Advisor for the UK. He was a professor of medicine and headed research at a pharmaceutical company, including developing drugs against the HIV virus.

The Medics

Heading up the medics is Professor Chris Whitty is the Chief Medical Advisor to the UK Government. He is also Chief Medical Office for England.  Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland each have their own CMO, given these nations are responsible for their own NHS.


Chris usefully has experience in tropical medicine, including the response to EBOLA.  He also caught COVID-19, so has first hand experience of it.

Chris is often seen flanking whichever minister is leading the daily press conference, or one of his deputies:
There are also three other medics who regularly appear at the daily press conferences, but represent other organisations:
  • Professor Yvonne Doyle, representing Public Health England,  She is responsible for
    prevention and control of infectious diseases, including planning and responses to public health emergencies
  • Professor Stephen Powis represents the NHS in England.  He is a doctor who is National Medical Director of NHS England and Professor of Renal Medicine.  Kidneys and other organs can be affected by COVID-19  
  • Professor John Newton is an epidemiologist who is  the national coordinator of the UK Government's coronavirus testing programme.  Otherwise he chairs the World Health Organisation’s European Burden of Disease Network

It is difficult to imagine people better suited to helping respond to COVID-19.  Which makes the issues with R all the more surprising.












Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

R, R, WHERE R'T THOU R? (Updated 29 May)

Image
R has gone AWOL.  The king of the COVID metrics is missing, presumed dead.  Yet so important.  That's what I wrote early on 28 May.  I then found something that made me fall off my chair.  I'm now returning to the topic late morning on 29 May: R is so important as an indicator of how well this coronavirus is being kept under control, and a key part of assessing whether lockdown restrictions can be eased or indeed need to be tightened .  But R is only useful if reflecting the transmission rate now.  The problem is that it isn't.  I am shocked! RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS OF R On 15 May, Sir Patrick Vallance, joint chair of SAGE, tweeted this: We'll go to that web page in a moment.  But before that.... Sir Patrick has tweeted nothing about R since 15 May (as at 10 pm on 29 May).  Nor has Professor Chris Whitty , the other joint chair, presumably as his brief is medical matters.    . So I looked at all the slides...
Read more

SAVE THE SUMMER. SAVE THE ECONOMY. THE POLITICAL ISSUES

Image
The proposal for a second lockdown to save the summer and save the economy is subject to political will.  Several issues need to be overcome. This is a non-partisan post, being neither Leaver or Remainer as far as Brexit is concerned..  Nothing in this post takes away that the Conservative party won the 2019 General Election.  Brexit is done, with the EU already notified that the UK does not wish to extend the transition period beyond December 2020.  No, this is solely about overcoming COVID-19, for which the government needs to be trusted by the public.  This post is fundamentally about leadership. Firstly any government initiative would be undermined were Cummings to remain in post.  Cummings showed that rules don’t need to be followed.  The new lockdown rules would need to be followed for this proposal to work.  He can;t be part of the leadership.  He must go The government has repeatedly said that easings of lockdown restrictions...
Read more

THE MONDAY AFTER THE NIGHT BEFORE

Image
On Sunday evening 10 May, PM Johnson broadcast a pre-recorded message that set out some sensible overall concepts. But his talk has been widely slated for a lack of clarity, and that consensus hadn't been developed with either the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, nor with Labour and other political parties. Frankly it looked like a Year 12 school project that had gone horribly wrong. Could it get any worse?  Hold my beer! Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, did a round of media interviews on Monday morning that confused people even more.  And resulted in some of the things he said having to be corrected. Later in the day, a round of briefing papers were released to Parliament, and PM Johnson appeared in the Commons to answer questions.  Again not good. This is Keir Starmer, Labour leader, trying to make sense of the documents in the Commons this afternoon The story so far is set out in this damning article "Motor misfires ...
Read more