WORRYING SIGNS THAT R IS ALREADY OVER 1

A week ago I predicted that R would be over 1 by the end of May, and a second lockdown would then be needed.  I still hope it won't be, but sadly the signs are there that it will.  .

Today I am sad to see hospitals reporting that their A&E departments are now busier  than in the first wave.  Weston General has had to close its A&E today as it is full.  And this tweet is typical of others:

 
R is the transmission rate  for the SARS2 coronavirus.  An R of 1.0 means that on average every person contracting the virus infects only one other person in the entire time they are infectious, whilst they have symptoms and crucially before they know they have it.  If you think about it, that's incredibly difficult. It requires lockdown to avoid people mingling, or alternative anti-transmission measures that in combination are just as effective.  That just hasn't been communicated.  "Common sense" is not enough.

As this graph shows,  an R of 1 means cases still grow, and 0.5 means new cases fizzle out within a couple of months.  Increase R to only 1.1 and there's exponential growth.  SARS 2 has an R naturally about 3, which produces the rapid growth we saw before lockdown.


My concern was about the way the public had relaxed too much because of the appalling way the government had communicated the easing of lockdown, without adequate anti-transmission measures. 

It hasn't been helped by some newspapers and other media.talking about the end of lockdown in the days before Johnson's announcement.    Frankly I'm furious.

The second wave is here, and it threatens to be bigger.  The only quick amswer is a second lockdown

A secind wave means many more deaths.  And a second lockdown means more disruption to family life and livelihoods.  It also means a much bigger economic cost.  The best way to minimise that cost is to ease lockdown carefully so there is no second wave, such that no second lockdown is needed.  Something the media have got to realise!

That is what PM Johnson said two weeks ago, but hasn't backed that up with a proper education programme.  It doesn't help of course that Cummings has undermined the messages.

The next step was supposed to take place on 1 June, if R and other data permits.  The government has announced they need to make a decision by this Thursday 28th whether to let some school years back and let open some other businesses.  But if R rises, those things won;t happen, and another lockdown may well need to be imposed.  All that hard work for nothing.

So everyone.  Forget your anger at Cummings.  Let's hope it's not already too late.to keep R down below 1.  Please obey the rules and let's not let this virus get the upper hand again.   

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

R, R, WHERE R'T THOU R? (Updated 29 May)

Image
R has gone AWOL.  The king of the COVID metrics is missing, presumed dead.  Yet so important.  That's what I wrote early on 28 May.  I then found something that made me fall off my chair.  I'm now returning to the topic late morning on 29 May: R is so important as an indicator of how well this coronavirus is being kept under control, and a key part of assessing whether lockdown restrictions can be eased or indeed need to be tightened .  But R is only useful if reflecting the transmission rate now.  The problem is that it isn't.  I am shocked! RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS OF R On 15 May, Sir Patrick Vallance, joint chair of SAGE, tweeted this: We'll go to that web page in a moment.  But before that.... Sir Patrick has tweeted nothing about R since 15 May (as at 10 pm on 29 May).  Nor has Professor Chris Whitty , the other joint chair, presumably as his brief is medical matters.    . So I looked at all the slides...
Read more

THE MONDAY AFTER THE NIGHT BEFORE

Image
On Sunday evening 10 May, PM Johnson broadcast a pre-recorded message that set out some sensible overall concepts. But his talk has been widely slated for a lack of clarity, and that consensus hadn't been developed with either the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, nor with Labour and other political parties. Frankly it looked like a Year 12 school project that had gone horribly wrong. Could it get any worse?  Hold my beer! Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, did a round of media interviews on Monday morning that confused people even more.  And resulted in some of the things he said having to be corrected. Later in the day, a round of briefing papers were released to Parliament, and PM Johnson appeared in the Commons to answer questions.  Again not good. This is Keir Starmer, Labour leader, trying to make sense of the documents in the Commons this afternoon The story so far is set out in this damning article "Motor misfires ...
Read more