The "COVID Out" Blog

I'm livid.  When I should be grateful.  But why treat the self-employed less well than the employed? There are a substantial number of people, such as in the music industry, who have had their livelihoods pulled from under their feet.  Zero income.  Mouths to feed. The Chancellor has been supportive to the self-employed, at least for those who are eligible: Deferral of VAT payments for all types of businesses, applicable only to businesses that are VAT-registered.  But VAT not actually cancelled. Deferral of income tax payments for the technically 'self-employed', taxed under Schedule.D rather than under PAYE.  That is sole traders and partners in partnerships.  But income tax not actually cancelled. The Business Bounceback Loan Scheme (BBLS), whereby the government acts as guarantor for a low interest loan from a bank, and also pays the first year's interest.  This is available to all types of business, whether limited companies or the ...

Now that summer is warming our hearts, it's tempting to think this coronavirus will go away of itself.  It's too early to make that assumption We're used to colds and flu being a winter thing.  But this SARS2 coronavirus is not flu. Have you ever had a summer cold?  Around 15-20% of colds are coronaviruses.  Viruses with the same basic structure and similar mechanism to enter cells as this SARS2. We also know that COVID-19 is something experienced in the southern hemisphere in their late summer.  Whether that has helped New Zealand and Australia in their fight against COVID-19 is an interesting question. I'm about to review some 1000 academic and medical papers as part of my helping a university professor with understanding aspects of COVID-19 testing.  I'll keep an eye out for relevant insight on seasonality and report back if I find anything.

The Cummings issue has dominated the last few days, and looks like it will rumble on. His press conference in the garden of Number 10 was remarkable.  In trying to address the reports of additional issues, he set out a number of additional matters .  Rather than put such matters to bed, he opened a can of worms. These matters served to show he is a dangerous man who does not observe the laws and regulations of this country.  Dangerous to his family, his colleagues and the general public.  And oblivious to the traditions and anger of the British public. Indeed  Durham Constabulary have today 28 May issued a carefully worded statement.  They would have been entitled under the regulation to stop Cummings and request he return to Durham.  That means a breach of the regulations which would have entitled the police to issue a fine, were it not for the light touch approach.  What Cummings did sets an awful example.  Senior police are...

Earlier this evening, Thursday 28 May, PM Johnson confirmed that schools will begin to re-open next Monday 1 June for certain year groups.  That's reception, year 1 and year 6.  That only gives schools three whole days over the weekend to finish preparations and communicate with parents. Many schools have been open for children of key workers.  So they already have experience of what it is like to operate under the threat of this SARS2 coronavirus. As a result of that experience, it is clear that adult-to-adult transmission of the virus is a bigger risk than between children or children-to-adults. Fortunately children do not appear to be that susceptible to the virus , either to contract the COVID-19 disease nor to transmit it. However those risks are not zero, and so the government is encouraging schools to adopt a new approach to teaching children. Indeed children have been the focus of government statements and media discussion.  Of course parents are mo...

Henry is the Features Editor at the Financial Times.  He summed up concisely what everyone else was saying:   When  it comes to PM Johnson:   " Please release him, let him go "

Today is the day that the UK government is scheduled to announce whether the lockdown easing hoped for next Monday 1 June can go ahead, or whether changes need to be delayed.  Indeed whether existing adjustments need to be reversed back to simply "Stay at Home".  Changes would include: Opening  non-essential retail Starting phased return of children to school , starting with Reception, Year 1 and Year 6 My concern is that R has risen over the limit of 1.0, and changes should not go ahead.  There's little I can do to influence that decision now.  The meetings are probably already taking place.  We can only look beyond that decision. Where are we in the battle against COVID-19?  The worst death toll in Europe, and infection cases still high. Who should be leading us forward?  What am I consequentially going to do about tbis blog?   But before I answer those questions, let me tell you a story.  Back when I was 23, it was ...

R has gone AWOL.  The king of the COVID metrics is missing, presumed dead.  Yet so important.  That's what I wrote early on 28 May.  I then found something that made me fall off my chair.  I'm now returning to the topic late morning on 29 May: R is so important as an indicator of how well this coronavirus is being kept under control, and a key part of assessing whether lockdown restrictions can be eased or indeed need to be tightened .  But R is only useful if reflecting the transmission rate now.  The problem is that it isn't.  I am shocked! RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS OF R On 15 May, Sir Patrick Vallance, joint chair of SAGE, tweeted this: We'll go to that web page in a moment.  But before that.... Sir Patrick has tweeted nothing about R since 15 May (as at 10 pm on 29 May).  Nor has Professor Chris Whitty , the other joint chair, presumably as his brief is medical matters.    . So I looked at all the slides...

A Criminal Judge " Ladies and gentlemen of the jury.  Do you find this bounder Cummings guilty or not guilty "  With PM Johnson still adamant [as at 7.30pm Wednesday 27 May] that Cummings should stay in post, it is worth looking at whether that is justified. David Allen Green is a former Treasury Solicitor with direct experience of working in government as a lawyer.  He is currently a columnist on law and policy for the Financial Times.   In this capacity he has written a video "guided tour" of Dominic Cummings' statement   that he  presented from the garden of 10 Downing Street on Sunday 25 May.  The video is free to access and worth watching if you have 25-30 minutes to spare. As David explains, this statement has been written by a lawyer in the form of a witness statement.  The simple reason is that the matters being discussed are potentially breaking regulations and laws with criminal consequences.  Cummings must anticipa...

I recently wrote about the issues involved in partially re-opening schools , as hoped on 1 June. Yes it would be good to get some kids back to school.  For their sakes, their parents, and their employers.  Makes a lot of sense. But only if done safely.  For the kids.  But also for the adults.  Teachers, other staff and parents. Sir Patrick Vallance at the press conference on 22 May indicated that it would inevitably put upward pressure on R.  It was already 0.7 - 1.0 when last announced back on 15 May.   Yet we know how important it is to keep R below 1.0, and preferably below 0.5. I've now had chance to review the guidance for schools published recently by the government .   This was published on 12 May, with an update expected shortly. My earlier posting highlighted that adult to adult transmission is actually a bigger concern than child to child or child to adult, as children seem to have a natural immunity .  They rarely cat...