The "COVID Out" Blog

I want lockdown to be eased as rapidly as possible.  I did at the start of it and I still do.  But.  And it's a big but. Easing has to be done safely.  Otherwise if a second wave happens we will inevitably need a second lockdown to suppress it.  Just like the first time.  That would create even more economic damage.  Even more cost to the Treasury.  Even more disruption  to our lives.  And tens of thousands more deaths. Untold damage. Is that a risk worth taking? Indeed no.  Caution is easing lockdown is vitally important.  As PM Johnson indeed said in his recorded address to the nation on 10 May. Then R in the UK was estimated at 0.4-0.7.  Last we heard ( 15 May, nearly 2 weeks ago ) it had already risen to 0.7-1.0.  It's probably now already over 1.0.  That would mean exponential growth again.  R needs to be held well below 0.5 ideally to bring new cases to a halt within a reasonable timescale....

"Reptiles" my Latin master used to shout at us. I was schooled at a state grammar school.  A relic of a bygone age.  He certainly was. But it was his deputy who hit the truth.  In my end-of-term report he said of me aged 15 "He is self-opinionated". Maybe he could see Twitter ahead.  Many folk on Twitter are self-opinionated.  I'm no exception.  Guilty as charged. But then many of us have the experience to be worth sharing.  Here's mine from my post on this blog's objectives : "You’ll have to excuse that my trumpeter has been furloughed.  I’ll have to blow my own!   Education I studied Natural Sciences at Cambridge, specialising in chemistry, spectroscopy and biochemistry.  I find the science of this virus and its effects fascinating.   I’ve become an ‘armchair virologist’ and epidemiologist with an interest in all the virus’s consequences, be they social, medical or financial. In university holidays I...

An example of hotspots As lockdown is eased ( I hope ), a topic that will become more relevant is how to deal with COVID19 'Hotspots'. These are small areas of the country in which COVID19 is especially rampant compared to the rest of the country.  How to deal with them is a big topic, so I only want to introduce it here now. The significance of Hotspots is twofold: That Weston General Hospital had to close its A&E to new patients yesterday because it was already full with COVID19 cases.  That implies we already have a 'hotspot' in the Weston area Conversely, other areas of the country with low occurrence of cases will want to press ahead with easing lockdown more quickly.  This is especially true of rural areas with low population density, The UK Government has been asked repeatedly at the daily press conferences whether different regions will be treated differently.  The answer has been "No", to treat the whole country the same.  But becuase...

A week ago I predicted that R would be over 1 by the end of May , and a second lockdown would then be needed.  I still hope it won't be, but sadly the signs are there that it will.  . Today I am sad to see hospitals reporting that their A&E departments are now busier  than in the first wave.  Weston General has had to close its A&E today as it is full.  And this tweet is typical of others:   R is the transmission rate  for the SARS2 coronavirus.  An R of 1.0 means that on average every person contracting the virus infects only one other person in the entire time they are infectious, whilst they have symptoms and crucially before they know they have it.  If you think about it, that's incredibly difficult. It requires lockdown to avoid people mingling, or alternative anti-transmission measures that in combination are just as effective.  That just hasn't been communicated.  "Common sense" is not enough. As this gra...

From the archive, during a lockdown clear-out When I left PW, then one of the 'Big8'. I did another job before becoming self-employed..  It was fascinating but frustrating. When I was at PW, I'd attend meetings with senior people at clients like Guinness.  My reports were taken as gospel, and people listened intensely to me as I ran through my findings and recommendations.  I was prepared to make changes when needed, but this was rare. It was all the more a surprise on changing jobs that people regarded me and what I said with suspicion.  Extreme suspicion in some cases.  Even though it was similar topics.  I had to justify everything I said and build their trust.  Something that people did naturally when I was at PW, and I could take for granted. The same now applies to this blog.  I need to build credibility and I hope my biography alongside the blog's objectives helps to do that. I am an Oxbridge science graduate who became a finan...

So Dominic Cummings has faced the country’s press followed by PM Johnson leading this evening’s presser (Sunday).  What new have we learned?  What are the consequences? WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED ABOUT CUMMINGS? Commentators are suggesting the account given by Cummings is not true.  Indeed we might expect that.  But assuming that  what he said is covering up something no better (and potentially far worse), let's work with what Cummings himself said: He visited Downing Street when his wife was ill with suspected COVID-19 when he should have self-isolated He drove from Durham to Barnard Castle when his eyesight was impaired, with his wife and 4yo child .  Potentially a dangerous and serious motoring offence The visit to Barnard Castle was when full lockdown regulations were in force and such a journey was not permitted He took his son to hospital in Durham, against clear advice not to do so He admitted to these matters on live TV This is all on top of u...

In my post about yesterday's presser, updated an hour ago, I finished with: "Personally I'd like to see Cummings go and Johnson replaced as PM.  This episode was outrageous.." I have now written to my MP with a suggestion for an emergency election of an Interim PM and party leader. Leaver or Remainer.  Brexit isn't the issue.  Yet. Whilst I can't claim to have single-handedly deposed Thatcher, I can claim to share views with a significant portion of the public and the Conservative party.  Of which I am not a member, by the way, nor a member of any other registered party.  My views are far too mainstream. I was tempted to include that Johnson and Cummings haven't even done a good job so far, given the high death toll and numerous other problems.  But I didn't want a reply explaining how good it has been! Here's the letter, emailed at 8am today, 27th.  The stopwatch is on.  A day's now a long time in politics::