Superceded SAVING THE SUMMER. SAVING THE ECONOMY. THE PROPOSAL.

Proposal letter in the FT
Substantially updated 16 June.  Please click this link.

“London we have a problem.”  The UK is now the sick man of Europe.  We have a much higher level of COVID-19 infections than...

Comments

  1. Jimmy Mack17 June 2020 at 01:11

    You don't understand the R rate. Lockdown never got us to 0.5 and keeping it longer doesn't mean it gets lower. Other measures are more effective at getting it down (track and trace) once infections are low enough to manage.

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    Replies
    1. COVID Out17 June 2020 at 13:15

      The published R rate went down to 0.4-0.7. New infections couldn't have fallen rapidly unless R was significantly below 1.

      Track/Trace/Isolate is fine in theory but fraught with problems in practice. False negatives on testing of 40% or more I am reliably advised by someone working on a research project on swab tests. False positived on contacts. And without testing, this leads to false imprisonment. Plus a whole host of techincail problems with "Got it" testing, such as dealing with RNA changes in the virus. Already over 13 variants.

      So I do understanfd the R rate and don't think Track/Trace/Isolate is the magic answer. Techniques to actually stop transmission of the virus are the answer

      Delete

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