REDUCING THE 2 METRE RULE, BUT SAFELY

Letter in the FT - see below
“London we have an option”

PM Johnson is expected to announce the shortening of the 2 metre social distancing rule tomorrow, Tuesday.

But will it be done in the best way?  There's a choice:
  1. Keep to the current plan, and tentatively re-open the economy in July with the spectre of a second wave
  2. Change the plan, and re-open the economy strongly in July with virtually no risk of a second wave
Which would you prefer?  Let's explore.

Adjusting the 2 metre rule is key to re-opening the economy, getting children back to school, and getting life back to some level of normality for the summer.  Opening pubs, hotels and other hospitality which are not economically viable if the rule stays at 2m.  Cutting short the massive drain on Treasury funds. Letting businesses thrive again.  Protecting jobs and livelihoods.

But can we take the risk of adjusting the 2m rule without kicking off a second wave of infection?  An adjustment to 1m or 1.5m has been delayed because the shorter the distance, the greater the risk of COVID-19 transmission. That's a worry.

Or do we take the option to take steps to ensure that we cut the distance safely?  And let the economy rebound more strongly through the summer?

This posting makes the case for taking action to allow a safe as well as early reduction of the social distancing rules which will fire up the economy.  Whilst eliminating the risk of a second wave.

Because, London, we have a problem.


IS THE LEVEL OF INFECTIONS ACTUALLY REDUCING?

The evidence points to daily infections levelling off.  That implies a transmission R number of around 1.0.  The tiniest bit more and a second wave of infection sets off.  Then we’re back to square one.  PM Johnson has rightly said we cannot do that.  Why waste all the effort people have put in to get infections down?

First sign of the problem was the “New Confirmed Cases” graph shown at the press conference on Wednesday 17 June, updated a couple of days later, as below.  The 7-day rolling average of daily infections clearly levelling off in the past week:


A graph from the ONS was also shown .  Total infections clearly levelling off in the past week, meaning daily infections too. Matt Hancock said  that "this same survey implies around 4.5 thousand new cases per day":


There is also the study being run by King’s College London using ZOE technology.  Nearly 4 million smart phone users log their symptoms daily.  Their graph also shows daily infections levelling off this last week.  The estimate being 3,612 a day.


So let’s say the daily infection rate is around 4,000 a day.  That compares to under 500 a day in France and Spain.  And Germany were it not for this weekend’s outbreak in an abattoir.  Showing just how easily the virus can resurge again if we give it the chance.

These European countries are relaxing their social distancing rules.  How can we expect to do so if our infection rate is so much higher, and no longer reducing?

Clearly we need to get the UK infection rate down sharply.  But how?  And when?


LEARNING FROM THE FIRST LOCKDOWN

The BBC published this graph of the cumulative infections arising from different R numbers. Note:
  1. R only needs to be a tad higher than 1.0 to set off exponential growth and a second wave.
  2. At 0.5, daily infections drop to near zero after 3 weeks

This is what we found in the first wave at the beginning of the lockdown, when R was officially around 0.4-0.7.  Infections dropped to 16% of their starting level in just three weeks.

16% means that’s daily infections down from some 4,000 a day to some 640.  A much stronger position to think about relaxing the 2m rule and almost all the other lockdown restrictions, comparable to other parts of Europe.

Not enough to allow large gatherings such as musical events and theatre.  But an important step in that direction.

Virtually eliminating the risk of a second wave of infection.   In just three weeks.

But how?  To get down to an R of 0.4-0.5 there is really only one option.  A short, sharp second lockdown.

Even if R is the official 0.7-0.9,  that would take far longer to get to a lower level of infections.  Indeed today 22 June, the "New Confirmed Cases" graph shows a slight dip in the 7-day rolling average.  But that is too slow.  R needs to be 0.4-0.5 to get new cases well below 1,000 before mid-July.. 


THE PROPOSAL

A letter was published in the Financial Times on Thursday 11 June with a proposal in two parts:
  1. A short sharp lockdown of 3 weeks.
  2. A stronger set of anti-transmission measures to help keep infections down afterwards

A lockdown would mean back to essential retail only.  But with the carrot to other retail and the public of a far stronger recovery in just three weeks. Perhaps retaining some of the easings such as small outdoor meetings. Maybe even allow pub gardens and outside cafes to open.  The modellers can help decide what can be done whilst keeping R down to 0.4-0.5.

Anti-transmission measures need to be fundamentally voluntary, so that the public will continue using them well into the future, until vaccines and effective treatments become available.  The measures need to be cheap yet effective.  Probably extending advice on using masks to a wider range of situations, such as being in any shop or other public space, where it needs to be compulsory until it becomes a habit.   Again let the scientists and modellers recommend.


TIMESCALES

When the letter was published, the new second lockdown plan could have been implemented in time to substantially relax lockdown on 4 July, as targeted.

Now if the lockdown was to start formally on Monday 29 June, to give time for modelling, then 18 July would be the target.  Still before the state school summer holidays would have started.  For the hospitality industry, just in time.  Our holidays assured, here and abroad.

Get people to voluntarily lockdown earlier would make this even better assured.  No point in delaying.


BENEFITS OF THE SECOND LOCKDOWN OPTION

  1. A far stronger economic recovery, yet still in July
  2. Relief for the Treasury, as VAT and other taxes start rolling in again, and the need for financial support to be substantially reduced
  3. Relief for many fearing for their jobs and self-employed livelihoods
  4. Letting those who have been shielding to more safely leave their homes
  5. Let schools go back fully in September, with the possibility of schooling over the summer.  Universities too.
  6. And much more besides
Everybody wins.


CAN IT HAPPEN?

The government has repeatedly said that 4 July is “at the earliest” and lockdown restrictions can be re-imposed if necessary.

This second lockdown option may be embarrassing for them, but not as embarrassing as a second wave of infections, and falling further behind our European neighbours.  Let alone allowing an unnecessary rise in deaths if we stay on the current path.  That wold be unforgiveable.

At the press conference last Tuesday 16 June. PM Johnson said, from 17m42s  “I absolutely hear those concerns and will do EVERYTHING IN MY POWER to get us back to normal as soon as possible, but we must proceed carefully..”

Time to take action.


IN CONCLUSION

The Government has a golden opportunity to save the economy, save the summer and let us get back to some level of normality.

A short sharp lockdown for 3 weeks to let restrictions be substantially released by 18 July, with a set of anti-transmission measures to keep infections down thereafter.  Avoiding a second wave of infections and all the damage that would cause.

London, we have the answer.  Let’s do it. 

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