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IS ENGLAND READY FOR 4th JULY? THE DATA SAYS DEFINITELY NOT

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Tomorrow, Saturday 4 July, the government has planned to substantially ease lockdown restrictions for the general community in England. Are we ready?  We weren’t.  But has the situation improved sufficiently to make these easings? To answer that question, and understand and manage the pandemic in the general community, we need to understand what is happening to new infections.  These are also known as “new cases” as a result of “transmission” of the COVID-19 disease by the SARS-COV-2 virus: Whilst death and hospitalisation data is important, these events occur some weeks after transmission, and are therefore not sufficiently timely There is no data directly relating to transmission.  All data has an inherent delay, as explained in each case below.  In particular: Symptoms do not occur until at least 5 days after infection Testing typically takes 2 days or more to produce results People can remain asymptomatic yet are still contagious.  We...
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SAVING THE SUMMER. SAVING THE ECONOMY. SAVING LIVES

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UPDATE 3 JULY ABOUT DATA PUBLISHED 2 JULY The various data published yesterday support the basic messages in this postL England's level of infection is too high to go ahead with easings due tomorrow Saturday 4 July  Economy and life in general will eb stronger if we have a short, sharp second lockdown.  Just 3 weeks. Supported by better anti-transmission measures and public information about them.  So far the comms have been almost non-existent See analysis of the latest data here  UPDATE 1 JULY 2020 PM Johnson talked at PM questions today, 1 July, that daily infections were "below 1000".  This sounds like the total of "pillar 1 and 2" data derived from formal testing that has been routinely shown in the daily press briefings.  This figure is inherently the tip of the iceberg due to: Only people who submit to a test.  Not people with symptoms who do not volunteer Not those who do not return a  postal test 'False negatives' can be ...
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THE NEW ONS DATA SUGGESTS R IS OVER 1.0. WHAT DO WE DO NEXT?

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This post started life as a tweet thread .  I have retained the tweet numbers below each tweet for ease of reference: Tweets 1-20 based on the new ONS data published 25 June, with 18-20 added on 26 June Tweets 21-40 adding in data from the King’s College “COVID Symptoms Study” using  the ZOE app, also published 25 June UPDATE ON COVID-19 INFECTIONS FROM THE ONS On Tuesday 23 June PM Johnson announced that COVID-19 infections in England had dropped to 1 in 1700, and that various easings could take place as planned on 4 July. 1 in 1700 is equivalent to 0.06% of the population in England. [1/n] With 0.06% in mind, Matt Hancock announced at the press briefing last Thursday 18 June that the “ …ONS’s (Office for National Statistics) survey... implies around 4.5 thousand new cases per day ” [2/n] Today Thursday 25 June the ONS has announced that “ The decrease in the number of people in England testing positive for …COVID-19 has levelled off .” However the g...
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ON PAIN OF DEATH - HOW BEST TO REDUCE THE TWO METRE RULE?

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On Pain of Death As an Oxbridge science grad and qualified financial professional myself, I solve knotty business problems.  Working with the CEO and CFO of FTSE, AIM and private businesses. Imagine I’ve been asked to consider the issue of the 2 metre rule.  Can the distance be reduced?  How best to do so? So in classic Findings / Conclusions / Recommendation format, here goes. INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE The social distancing restriction of 2 metres between people is making it very difficult to re-open the economy, re-open schools and get back to anything like normality in other settings.  In particular, the hospitality industry would not be economically viable at 2 metres, putting millions of jobs at risk and undermining our summer holidays. It is therefore important to reduce this limit as soon as possible. The existing target is 4 July. Certainly reduce the distance by the start of the normal summer holidays.  State schools typically break up ar...
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REDUCING THE 2 METRE RULE, BUT SAFELY

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Letter in the FT - see below “London we have an option” PM Johnson is expected to announce the shortening of the 2 metre social distancing rule tomorrow, Tuesday. But will it be done in the best way?  There's a choice: Keep to the current plan, and tentatively re-open the economy in July with the spectre of a second wave Change the plan, and re-open the economy strongly in July with virtually no risk of a second wave Which would you prefer?  Let's explore. Adjusting the 2 metre rule is key to re-opening the economy, getting children back to school, and getting life back to some level of normality for the summer.  Opening pubs, hotels and other hospitality which are not economically viable if the rule stays at 2m.  Cutting short the massive drain on Treasury funds. Letting businesses thrive again.  Protecting jobs and livelihoods. But can we take the risk of adjusting the 2m rule without kicking off a second wave of infection?  An adjust...
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